The UK government's long-repeated claim that AI could add £400bn to the economy came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google, and its own estimate is far lower, Wired reports. Answering a parliamentary question, AI minister Kanishka Narayan said official analysis put the gain from AI adoption and data investment at between £55bn and £140bn by 2030, with a central figure of £120bn, and called even that highly uncertain.
The larger number was produced by the consultancy Public First, now PF Global, whose economics head said the gap partly reflected slower AI adoption than expected in 2023. Wired found the figure was used by departments for almost two years under two governments, even though ministers had the lower estimate from at least November 2025. The minister did not withdraw the £400bn claim.
Source: Wired